American Austerity – NYTimes.com

 

American Austerity – NYTimes.com.

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Economist’s View: “The Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1 Percent”

 

Economist’s View: “The Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1 Percent”.

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Obama spending binge never happened – Rex Nutting – MarketWatch

Obama spending binge never happened – Rex Nutting – MarketWatch.

Obama has not  presided over a massive increase in federal spending.  This is according to the Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch.

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Has Team Romney forgotten that the Bush years were terrible? – The Washington Post

Has Team Romney forgotten that the Bush years were terrible? – The Washington Post.

 

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Yes, Bush’s economy was terrible – The Washington Post

Yes, Bush’s economy was terrible – The Washington Post.

Ezra Klein:  “Of the more negative responses to today’s column, the one that’s been most common was the one I was least prepared for: The Bush economy, my correspondents say, was actually pretty good! As one reader e-mailed, “A stock market bordering 14,000, gas prices around $2-2.5/gal, a deficit in the low billions, an unemployment rate of 5-6% . . . oh, how horrible.”

There’s something to this. Depending on how you look at it, the Bush economy was either okay, a bit weak or absolutely awful.To make it look okay, you eliminate all context. You look at levels rather than trends. Unemployment was in the 5 to 6 percent range. The economy was growing. Deficits, though rising, were at manageable levels. The stock market was booming. Most Americans were living pretty well. That all sounds pretty good.

To make it look weaker, you add back in some context. Monthly job growth from March 2001 to December 2007 — so, from the pre-2001 recession peak to the pre-2007 recession peak — was 68,000. That’s one of the weakest expansions on record. Meanwhile, poverty and inequality were increasing even as median incomes were falling. Oh, and while Bush’s deficits weren’t huge, they came during a period of growth — normally, periods of growth are when you cut the deficit, as we saw in the 1990s. So these were deficits of an unusually irresponsible sort.

To make it look absolutely awful, you add in the fact that there was a huge credit bubble inflating beneath the economy that George W. Bush did nothing to stop and that his choice for Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, did much to inflate. So as weak as the decade’s economic numbers look, they’re much, much worse when you realize they were artificially pumped up by the bubble, and Bush’s record is much, much worse when you add that the economic collapse began on his watch, and the long-term cost of the tax cuts and Medicare Part D and the war in Iraq.

In other words, the more you actually know about Bush’s economy, how it compares with other periods in our economy and the role it played in the financial crisis, the worse it looks. I’m open to arguments that this really isn’t Bush’s fault, or that Mitt Romney’s policy differences with Bush are more significant than they appear to me. But the period itself is, from an economic perspective, really very bad.”

 

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Four Fiscal Charts – NYTimes.com

Four Fiscal Charts – NYTimes.com.

Four Fiscal Charts

“… a simple answer to the people who always insist that we must be having massive fiscal stimulus because we have a big budget deficit; my answer is that the deficit is a result of the depressed economy, but how do we show that without getting too much into the weeds?

Well, here’s a quick and dirty approach. Suppose that spending and revenues would, in the absence of the slump, have risen at 5 percent per year — roughly GDP growth plus inflation, and actually a bit slower than actual spending growth (6 percent per year) from 2000 to 2007. With this assumption, I can draw three charts for the federal government (using CBO data) and one for state and local (using FRED) that, I think, tell the story.

 

First, most of the surge in the federal deficit is about plunging revenue. In the figure below, the “No recession” line shows what would have happened if federal revenue had grown 5 percent per year after 2007:

That’s about an $800 billion per year shortfall.

What about spending? Well, it is higher than you would have expected in the absence of the slump, by around $300 billion:

What’s that $300 billion about? Well, they’re mainly about the category CBO calls “income security”, mainly food stamps and unemployment insurance:

Income security spending is, of course, strongly related to the state of the economy. So are some other forms of spending — Medicaid, of course, but also things like disability insurance, where people on the cusp are more likely to seek the benefits if they can’t find work.

So basically, the federal deficit is all, yes all, about the recession and aftermath.

And meanwhile, there has been austerity at the state and local level (calendar years here instead of fiscal, but that’s not crucial):

So the reality is that we have deficits because the economy is depressed, but relative to previous policy we’ve been imposing fiscal austerity, not stimulus.”

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Economist’s View: “Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?”

Economist’s View: “Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?”.

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The unrealistic assumptions behind Paul Ryan’s budget numbers – The Washington Post

The unrealistic assumptions behind Paul Ryan’s budget numbers – The Washington Post.

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No, the CBO hasn’t doubled its cost estimate for health-care reform – The Washington Post

The title says it all.

No, the CBO hasn’t doubled its cost estimate for health-care reform – The Washington Post.

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Written Version of Effects of Fiscal Policy.pdf (application/pdf Object)

Written Version of Effects of Fiscal Policy.pdf (application/pdf Object).

Excellent speech by Christina Romer about fiscal policy.

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