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Too True
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Lessons from the Great Depression, by Kevin O’Rourke:
The Great Depression gave the Nazi Party the opportunity to take power in Germany. Now, extremist groups are once again trying to use an economic crisis as a means to take power. Are we going to forget history’s lessons and allow them to succeed?
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Bush tax cuts had little positive impact on economy
From Bruce Bartlett in the Fiscal Times:
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Issues/Taxes/2010/09/17/Bush-Tax-Cuts-No-Economic-Help.aspx
“The truth is that there is virtually no evidence in support of the Bush tax cuts as an economic elixir. To the extent that they had any positive effect on growth, it was very, very modest. Their main effect was simply to reduce the government’s revenue, thereby increasing the budget deficit, which all Republicans claim to abhor.”
See below for a graph of the effect on revenue.
Extending the tax cuts for the middle class is a good idea, but extending them for the rich is a bad idea. Paul Krugman:
Temporary Tax Cuts For The Rich? No.
Greg Sargent notes the growing number of Republicans suggesting a “compromise†in the form of temporary extension of high-end tax breaks, and urges Democrats not to take the bait. His argument is essentially political: Republicans are obviously aware that they’re in a fix, and Democrats shouldn’t help them out.
But there are reasons beyond partisan maneuvering to reject any deal here.
First, temporary tax breaks for the rich are stunningly bad economic policy. As I tried to explain, basic economic theory — Milton Friedman’s theory! — tells us that affluent taxpayers are likely to save the great bulk of a transitory tax break. And bear in mind that while a 2-year extension wouldn’t increase debt as much as a permanent extension, it would still be much more expensive than measures like aid to the unemployed and to small businesses that would do far more for the economy, yet spent months held up in Congress because of alleged concerns about the deficit.
Second, this is obviously — obviously — a setup. The whole point is to avoid a vote on the middle-class tax cuts while Democrats control the House; when and if Republicans regain control, they can refuse to let anything but a full extension reach the floor. So the goal is actually permanent extension; what they’re offering isn’t a compromise, it’s a trap.
So just say no.
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Bumper sticker
My (conservative) brother and his wife gave me this wonderful bumper sticker for my birthday…Â Now how can you take a network seriously that produces a bumper sticker that is so easy to edit?
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Port Townsend Wooden Boat Festival
Visited the festival yesterday. I’ve attached a couple of panoramas from the festival — click on them for a zoomable version. I cropped the second one but left the first with raw edges. No, the boats aren’t actually bent — just a little camera/panorama/perspective distortion.
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Stimulating infrastructure
A NYT column by Robert H. Frank makes a very coherent and logical argument for an additional stimulus to build and repair our crumbling infrastructure. He says:
“… Now, those stimulus payouts are waning, and are being offset by spending cuts by state and local governments. As a result, a fragile economic recovery is faltering.
Many policy economists from both major political parties agree that additional stimulus would help put the recovery back on track. But many analysts say that growing fears about budget deficits make that step politically unthinkable.
All the while, however, we’re facing vivid examples of failing infrastructure across the country. Clearly, the maintenance and rebuilding of bridges, roads, water systems and the like can’t be postponed forever. And the work will never be cheaper to accomplish than right now, when high unemployment and excess capacity have put the opportunity cost of the necessary labor and equipment near zero. …”
and
“…Deferring maintenance does nothing to alleviate our national indebtedness; in fact, it makes the problem far worse. According to the Nevada Department of Transportation, for instance, rehabilitation of a 10-mile section of I-80 that would cost $6 million this year would cost $30 million in two years, after the road deteriorated further….”
Borrowing to build and repair infrastructure is like taking out a mortgage to build a house — you might leave the mortgage to future generations, but you also leave the house — a break-even at worst. But read the full article.
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Health Care Reform Costs
Ezra Klein has explained the projection published by the CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) of the costs of the new Health Care Reform act over the next 10 years. It looks as if the cost curve really does bend down after recovering from the initial shock of 30 million newly insured.
Edit: Here’s another link to a CBO report.
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Krugman
Why do I have so many references to articles written by Paul Krugman? Because, by sticking with a basic model (and it’s not rocket science), he’s usually right. At least according to himself…
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Government is not getting bigger
For all those who think that government under Obama is growing out of control there is this from Menzie Chinn.
Chinn adds a breakdown of federal, state, and local employment:

Figure 3: Federal (blue), state (red), local ex.-educ. (green) and local-education (purple) employment, seasonally adjusted, in thousands (FRED II series PAYEMS), all series seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS CES data via John Eckstein, and FRED II, and author's calculations.
Note the census ticks every 10 years. Also note that the federal government has not grown significantly since the 70s. So much for an out-of-control, ballooning federal government.

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More on Social Security
Social Security really isn’t in trouble — unless you are math-challenged or intentionally being deceitful. Krugman says it better than I can.
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